Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:03:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55a0…6522 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$39 (-3%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% $0
culture 19% −$1
sports 19% −$39
politics 12% +$1
other 10% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.3% -8.3% 38% 12% -9.3%
≤30d 15 +0.6% -8.9% 27% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 16 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 6% -9.5%
all 39 -0.0% -9.6% 36% 5% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 5% -12.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -21.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -28.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage286d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $11 +$1 +12%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $32 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $49 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $5 $0 -9%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $3 $0 +15%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Mar 10 $11 $0 +0%
Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 09 $197 −$39 -20%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $214 −$1 -1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? Oct 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 06 $29 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 24 $6 $0 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $10 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 12 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $27 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $3 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $31 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $31 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $28 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $29 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $28 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $28 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $28 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $28 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $20 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $9 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.73 · official $29.73 (match) · 123 history records