Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x559c…1eb6 crypto 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$25 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%43W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$93
other 7% −$34
culture 4% −$96
politics 1% $0
world 1% +$53
finance 1% +$33
tech 0% −$1
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 108 -17.5% -25.3% 40% 40% -15.5%
all 108 -17.5% -25.3% 40% 40% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 40% -15.5%
10% -32.5% 38% -23.6%
15% -39.0% 38% -31.0%
20% -45.0% 32% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses43 / 65
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage81d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 13 $8 −$1 -12%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m May 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and May 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 08 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 08 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 07 $3 +$6 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 07 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 07 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 06 $4 +$10 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 06 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 06 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 06 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 06 $31 +$61 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 06 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $278 −$102 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 06 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 06 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 06 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 06 $16 +$16 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 06 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 06 $10 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 06 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 05 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5? May 05 $249 +$46 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 05 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 05 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $104 +$158 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 04 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 04 $8 +$9 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3? May 03 $57 +$55 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 03 $15 −$10 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 03 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 03 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 03 $21 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 39d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 2¢ $7 39d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 13¢ $9 45d
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m BUY Yes 5¢ $9 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $93 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $31 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6? SELL Up 100¢ $91 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $12 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6? BUY Up 77¢ $71 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6? SELL Down 23¢ $85 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.97 · official $125.97 (match) · 206 history records