Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:05:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5597…9dd8 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$128 (-10%) realized −$32 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$39
sports 30% +$133
crypto 24% −$290
world 4% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -8.2% -17.0% 20% 20% -23.0%
≤30d 15 -8.2% -17.0% 20% 20% -23.0%
≤90d 15 -8.2% -17.0% 20% 20% -23.0%
all 15 -8.2% -17.0% 20% 20% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 20% -23.0%
10% -24.9% 20% -30.4%
15% -32.2% 20% -37.1%
20% -38.8% 13% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$40 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $153 $152 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 23¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $305 −$290 -95%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $54 −$31 -58%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $46 −$9 -19%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$5 -9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$43 +42%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 +$128 +227%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $123 −$18 -15%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$166 +324%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $155 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 22¢ $46 2h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $46 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $51 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 35¢ $48 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 36¢ $51 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $305 36h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $23 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 18¢ $23 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $54 2d
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 6¢ $37 2d
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $46 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $46 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $145 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $184 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 9¢ $105 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $123 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $56 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.76 · official $151.76 (match) · 28 history records