Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5594…b390 crypto 133 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (2306 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,541 (-35%) realized −$4,495 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate23%42W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day2305.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$906
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2306 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -40.1% -45.8% 23% 8% -32.2%
≤30d 181 -40.1% -45.8% 23% 8% -32.2%
≤90d 181 -40.1% -45.8% 23% 8% -32.2%
all 181 -40.1% -45.8% 23% 8% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2305.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.8% 8% -32.2%
10% ← realistic here -51.0% 3% -38.7%
15% -55.7% 1% -44.6%
20% -60.1% 1% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
25.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$33 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$4,495
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses42 / 139
Open positions3
Markets (closed)181 / 133
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$98
Trades / day2305.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 78¢ 96¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 18¢ 4¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-81%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $301 −$301 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $298 −$298 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $163 −$163 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $337 −$337 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $327 −$327 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.27 · official $20.17 · 3500 history records