Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

55 0x5593…a484 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$368 (-6%) realized −$368 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip

Net edge-0%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate47%8W / 9L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$327per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$107

7 days−$154

14 days−$154

30 days−$154

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-0.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+52.8%	+38.2%	70%	40%	-12.3%
≤30d	10	+52.8%	+38.2%	70%	40%	-12.3%
≤90d	11	+41.0%	+27.6%	64%	36%	-12.4%
all	17	+10.2%	-0.3%	47%	29%	-14.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-0.3%	29%	-14.0%
10%	-9.8%	24%	-22.2%
15%	-18.5%	24%	-29.7%
20%	-26.5%	18%	-36.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$568) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -42% → late +57% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$82 vs −$102 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.71 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$368

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses8 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions0

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage233d

Avg bet$327

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 17 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Jun 29	$546	−$14	-3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$1,291	+$46	+4%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$602	+$62	+10%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$821	−$201	-24%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) AND Will Spain wi	Jun 27	$15	+$52	+346%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Wil	Jun 26	$153	+$298	+194%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$160	+$12	+8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$100	+$60	+60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$671	−$573	-85%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$568	+$104	+18%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Apr 22	$3	−$2	-55%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Mar 14	$1	−$1	-100%
Australian Open Men's: Michael Zheng vs Sebastian Korda	Jan 18	$115	−$48	-42%
Australian Open Men's: Arthur Fery vs Flavio Cobolli	Jan 18	$137	−$20	-14%
Australian Open Men's: Learner Tien vs Marcos Giron	Jan 17	$69	−$2	-3%
ASB Classic: Sebastian Baez vs Jakub Mensik	Jan 17	$50	+$20	+40%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025?	Nov 08	$55	−$55	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Spread: Moro	BUY	59¢	$532	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	SELL Yes	77¢	$532	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	78¢	$546	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	95¢	$728	33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$670	38h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$664	38h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	90¢	$501	38h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	92¢	$100	38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	86¢	$609	38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$621	39h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	SELL	57¢	$620	39h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY	74¢	$147	45h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY	74¢	$674	2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) AND Will Spain wi	SELL	94¢	$67	2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Wil	SELL	99¢	$452	2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) AND Will Spain wi	BUY	21¢	$15	3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Wil	BUY	33¢	$153	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	65¢	$172	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	59¢	$160	4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	99¢	$160	4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	61¢	$100	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	9¢	$98	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	59¢	$671	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$672	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	84¢	$568	4d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	36¢	$2	68d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	35¢	$2	68d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	7¢	$1	107d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	22¢	$1	107d
Australian Open Men's: Michael Zheng vs Sebastian Korda	BUY Korda	75¢	$44	162d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $525.55 · 45 history records