Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5590…7a3f other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,710 (-56%) realized −$9,223 · open −$487
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,570per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$344
7 days−$344
14 days−$307
30 days−$9,384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$9,914
other 17% −$777
crypto 9% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -39.0% -44.8% 0% 0% -44.8%
≤30d 6 -20.2% -27.8% 50% 33% -72.5%
≤90d 8 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 38% -70.9%
all 8 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 38% -70.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 38% -70.9%
10% -19.4% 25% -73.7%
15% -27.2% 12% -76.3%
20% -34.3% 12% -78.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$2,671 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized−$9,223
Unrealized−$487
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage78d
Avg bet$1,570
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $255 $258 +$3 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $161 $117 −$44 (-27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $450 $4 −$446 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $880 −$344 -39%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $515 +$109 +21%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $278 −$147 -53%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $308 +$74 +24%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $288 +$20 +7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $11,204 −$9,097 -81%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $1,403 −$1,097 -78%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $150 +$280 +187%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $262 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $262 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $274 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $275 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $166 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $463 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $624 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $606 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $131 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $278 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,254 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $372 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $383 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $308 14d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $308 14d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $288 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $284 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $985 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $985 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $694 20d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $70 20d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 24¢ $1,364 25d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 24¢ $2 25d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 25¢ $706 28d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 21¢ $722 31d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 20¢ $516 31d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 20¢ $65 31d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 25¢ $1,419 35d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 28¢ $454 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.59 · official $378.59 (match) · 112 history records