Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

55
0x558f…1a56
sports · 932 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$17,284 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,042 · open −$15,109
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$56,532
Realized+$6,042
Unrealized−$15,109
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses689 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$3,450
Open positions476
Markets (closed)855 / 932
History coverage28d
Avg bet$606
Trades / day69.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 476 History 855 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22,213
7 days+$25,873
14 days−$32,959
30 days+$6,042
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $22,500 $38,228 +$15,728 (+70%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 83¢ 96¢ $7,780 $9,008 +$1,227 (+16%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $22,500 $6,772 −$15,728 (-70%)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? No 63¢ 94¢ $201 $301 +$100 (+50%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants No 99¢ 100¢ $198 $199 +$1 (+1%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No 91¢ 93¢ $183 $186 +$3 (+2%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Over 97¢ 48¢ $305 $150 −$156 (-51%)
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? No 73¢ 99¢ $105 $143 +$38 (+37%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ 78¢ $158 $125 −$33 (-21%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $108 $109 +$1 (+1%)
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics No 99¢ 100¢ $55 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
James Collier announced as next James Bond? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Jack Lowdon announced as next James Bond? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? No 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
No one announced as next James Bond? No 31¢ 13¢ $105 $43 −$61 (-59%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? No 88¢ 100¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 13 $0 −$44 -38455%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $91 +$1 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Chicago White Sox winning after 5 innings? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $1,995 +$20 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $22 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Ka Jun 13 $81 +$1 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $297 +$3 +1%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $134 +$2 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $162 +$3 +2%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $33 −$17 -50%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 12 $13 +$7 +57%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $21 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $68 −$43 -63%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $26 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +30%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $31 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $31 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $31 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% +$10,723
politics 14% −$16,800
other 1% −$1,277
world 0% −$779
culture 0% −$236
economics 0% −$204
tech 0% −$451
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 97¢ $291 2m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 95¢ $14 2m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San BUY No 99¢ $87 7m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San BUY No 99¢ $111 7m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $4 10m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $154 10m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. BUY No 99¢ $55 15m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 48m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 99¢ $9 55m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 99¢ $1,986 56m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 84¢ $2,756 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 83¢ $56 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 83¢ $7 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 83¢ $47 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 83¢ $7 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 83¢ $4,945 1h
Chicago White Sox winning after 5 innings? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 99¢ $5 1h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 99¢ $10 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 99¢ $19 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $15 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $15 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $3 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $109 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $297 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Over 99¢ $15 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 +270.9% +235.6% 97% 32% +33.9%
≤30d 855 +45.4% +31.6% 81% 14% -8.9%
≤90d 855 +45.4% +31.6% 81% 14% -8.9%
all 855 +45.4% +31.6% 81% 14% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover69.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.6% 14% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here +19.0% 11% -17.6%
15% +7.5% 10% -25.6%
20% -3.0% 9% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56,532.20 · official $56,524.40 (match) · 3500 history records