trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | +3.1% | -6.7% | 42% | 17% | +2.3% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +3.1% | -6.7% | 42% | 17% | +2.3% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +3.1% | -6.7% | 42% | 17% | +2.3% |
| all | 19 | +4.7% | -5.3% | 53% | 21% | -11.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.3% | 21% | -11.4% |
| 10% | -14.3% | 16% | -19.9% |
| 15% | -22.6% | 11% | -27.6% |
| 20% | -30.2% | 5% | -34.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $300 | $300 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | $20 | $19 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $280 | +$80 | +29% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 14 | $200 | −$7 | -4% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 13 | $13 | $0 | -2% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $15 | −$1 | -9% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on | Jun 12 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jun 12 | $4 | $0 | -1% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? | Jun 12 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $5 | −$1 | -30% |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen | Jun 11 | $5 | +$3 | +50% |
| Nets vs. Magic | Nov 15 | $245 | −$245 | -100% |
| Pacers vs. Suns | Nov 14 | $100 | +$9 | +9% |
| Hawks vs. Jazz | Nov 14 | $113 | +$23 | +20% |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Nov 14 | $100 | +$113 | +112% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Nov 13 | $99 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Nov 13 | $99 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Nov 11 | $1 | $0 | +10% |