Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
55 0x558e…a46f other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$11 (+16%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$14
sports 22% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +23.8% +12.1% 50% 50% -32.2%
≤30d 6 +23.8% +12.1% 50% 50% -32.2%
≤90d 6 +23.8% +12.1% 50% 50% -32.2%
all 6 +23.8% +12.1% 50% 50% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.1% 50% -32.2%
10% +1.3% 33% -38.7%
15% -8.5% 33% -44.6%
20% -17.4% 33% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals + assists Jun 25 $3 −$2 -69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 +$9 +76%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 +$7 +324%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 1h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $3 19h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals + assists SELL Yes 9¢ $1 19h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals + assists BUY Yes 28¢ $3 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.41 · official $15.41 (match) · 12 history records