Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x558a…0a8b tech 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$633 (-7%) realized −$629 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate64%58W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 24% −$21
sports 22% −$225
other 17% −$213
crypto 14% +$173
tech 13% +$14
finance 5% −$426
economics 4% +$16
politics 2% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 67% 0% -8.4%
all 91 -6.9% -15.8% 64% 22% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 22% -16.5%
10% -23.8% 21% -24.4%
15% -31.2% 20% -31.7%
20% -37.9% 14% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$53 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized−$629
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses58 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)91 / 99
History coverage246d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $49 $55 +$6 (+13%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 62¢ 62¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 59¢ 58¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $52 $41 −$11 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $33 $39 +$6 (+17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $26 $20 −$6 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $16 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $1,005 +$10 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Apr 01 $372 +$8 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 08 $179 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Mar 05 $18 $0 +2%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Mar 01 $495 −$39 -8%
Will Marco Rose be appointed as manager of Tottenham? Feb 28 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $170 $0 -0%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 25 $222 $0 -0%
Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 15 $200 $0 -0%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on February 13? Feb 13 $88 −$88 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on February 13? Feb 13 $96 −$96 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 13? Feb 13 $96 −$96 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 13? Feb 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on February 12? Feb 13 $46 +$2 +5%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on February 12? Feb 13 $70 +$30 +43%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 12? Feb 13 $97 +$113 +117%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on February 12? Feb 12 $123 −$123 -100%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on February 12? Feb 12 $84 −$84 -100%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 12? Feb 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 12 $53 +$47 +89%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 12 $48 +$52 +108%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 12 $47 +$53 +113%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 12 $51 +$49 +96%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 11 $47 −$47 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 11 $55 −$55 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 11 $72 −$72 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 11 $45 +$55 +122%
Meta (META) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 11 $71 +$29 +41%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 11 $48 +$52 +108%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 11 $49 +$51 +104%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on February 9? Feb 10 $57 +$33 +59%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 9? Feb 10 $62 +$58 +92%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on February 9? Feb 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 9? Feb 09 $43 −$43 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on February 9? Feb 09 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on February 6? Feb 06 $14 −$14 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 6? Feb 06 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Feb 05 $152 +$46 +30%
LoL: HMBLE vs EKO Esports (BO5) - LIT Playoffs Feb 03 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? Jan 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Grok be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? Jan 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #1 Free App in the US Apple App S Jan 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? Jan 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Whatnot: Shop, Sell, Collect be #1 Free App in the US Apple App S Jan 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January Jan 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Jan 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? Jan 30 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $47 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $45 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $45 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 62d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 62d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 62d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $49 62d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 62d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $48 63d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $107 63d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $380 78d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $372 89d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $363 95d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $103 95d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $449 95d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $733 95d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $19 95d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $55 95d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $97 100d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $94 103d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 89¢ $178 103d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 90¢ $179 105d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da SELL Yes 92¢ $3 106d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da SELL Yes 92¢ $2 106d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da SELL Yes 92¢ $5 107d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da SELL Yes 92¢ $1 107d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da SELL Yes 92¢ $7 107d
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 76¢ $456 110d
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 82¢ $410 110d
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.93 · official $305.93 (match) · 270 history records