Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5587…8c72 politics 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 314d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate26%12W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$5
politics 23% −$1
other 14% $0
sports 13% $0
economics 6% $0
weather 5% $0
finance 3% +$1
crypto 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -1.4% -10.8% 20% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 10 -1.4% -10.8% 20% 0% -10.7%
all 47 -0.7% -10.1% 26% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

314d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage314d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $30 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $21 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $47 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $22 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $24 −$2 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $26 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $28 −$1 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $21 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 28 $44 −$1 -3%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $1 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 18 $34 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $4200 on August 18? Aug 18 $14 +$3 +18%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 17 $1 $0 -19%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 15 $7 $0 +2%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on Augu Aug 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 09 $48 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 08 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 08 $48 −$1 -1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 07 $49 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 07 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 1h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $22 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $21 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $23 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $23 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $22 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $24 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $13 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $9 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $22 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $22 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $24 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $23 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $3 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $26 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $26 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $28 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $31 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $31 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 59¢ $28 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 59¢ $28 28d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $28 28d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $28 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.67 · official $26.67 (match) · 139 history records