Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
55 0x557e…5007 world 220 markets active 0h ago coverage 611d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$13,508 (+15%) realized +$13,360 · open +$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate60%124W / 82L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$358est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$6,480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days−$2,376
14 days−$2,343
30 days−$1,720
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$9,630
sports 32% +$632
other 15% +$2,867
crypto 2% +$81
culture 0% −$103
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -20.4% -28.0% 39% 34% -16.1%
≤30d 109 -15.8% -23.8% 42% 36% -13.6%
≤90d 124 +6.6% -3.6% 45% 38% -9.2%
all 206 +44.4% +30.6% 60% 49% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.6% 49% +4.0%
10% +18.1% 41% -6.0%
15% +6.7% 38% -15.1%
20% -3.8% 31% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +108% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$160 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$6,480
Realized+$13,360
Unrealized+$148
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses124 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$358
Open positions14
Markets (closed)206 / 220
History coverage611d
Avg bet$419
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $4,918 $4,911 −$7 (-0%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 42¢ $921 $953 +$32 (+4%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 45¢ 100¢ $67 $150 +$82 (+122%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 15¢ 45¢ $45 $135 +$90 (+200%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 69¢ $94 $98 +$4 (+4%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 59¢ $55 $59 +$4 (+7%)
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Yes 38¢ 28¢ $56 $41 −$15 (-27%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 49¢ 37¢ $54 $41 −$13 (-24%)
Will DR Congo be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-4%)
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 36¢ 30¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 68¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+27%)
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $31 $12 −$19 (-60%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 55¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 41¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-23%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $6 −$1 -19%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $167 −$164 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $292 −$61 -21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $374 +$239 +64%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 17 $1,979 +$237 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $914 +$35 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $29 −$29 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $222 −$219 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,884 +$277 +15%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $124 +$64 +52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $76 −$9 -12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $189 +$75 +39%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $586 +$538 +92%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $100 +$56 +56%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 +$18 +89%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $408 −$406 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $368 +$307 +84%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $690 +$610 +88%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $116 +$144 +124%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $88 +$49 +55%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1,369 +$207 +15%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $969 −$164 -17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Set Handicap: Tabilo (-1.5) vs Acosta (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by April 4, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$4 -56%
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 31, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 2? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of January 2 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 14 $188 −$56 -30%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by February 13, Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 13m
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 14m
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 14m
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 14m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 2¢ $1 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 2¢ $2 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 2¢ $0 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $167 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $48 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $0 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $48 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 43¢ $97 1h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 43¢ $85 1h
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $14 2h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $7 2h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $7 2h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $4 2h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $4 2h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $3 2h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $11 2h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $209 2h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 2h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $57 2h
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 43¢ $39 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $4 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $3 3h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 42¢ $43 3h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 41¢ $42 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,480.46 · official $6,491.73 (match) · 2152 history records