Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:31:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
55 0x557d…9fe9 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+3%) realized +$15 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$34
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$56
sports 23% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -15.9% -23.9% 33% 33% +3.6%
≤30d 5 -7.7% -16.5% 40% 40% +3.1%
≤90d 19 -9.8% -18.4% 32% 26% -6.5%
all 19 -9.8% -18.4% 32% 26% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 26% -6.5%
10% -26.2% 26% -15.4%
15% -33.3% 26% -23.6%
20% -39.9% 26% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage84d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 22 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $111 +$60 +55%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 −$24 -98%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 09 $10 $0 -3%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 09 $15 −$10 -65%
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Peshawar Zalmi Apr 08 $5 +$4 +73%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 08 $10 −$5 -51%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Punjab Kings Apr 06 $5 −$1 -19%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 05 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $57 +$1 +2%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 03 $1 +$2 +162%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 01 $10 −$4 -44%
Pakistan Super League: Multan Sultans vs Hyderabad Kingsmen Apr 01 $5 −$2 -35%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals Apr 01 $5 −$3 -68%
Pakistan Super League: Islamabad United vs Peshawar Zalmi Mar 31 $1 $0 -3%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings Mar 31 $6 +$4 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 80¢ $98 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 30h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 9d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 47¢ $1 48d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals BUY Rajasthan Royals 58¢ $5 52d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants SELL Lucknow Super Giants 51¢ $10 74d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Lucknow Super Giants 52¢ $10 74d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans BUY Delhi Capitals 95¢ $10 75d
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Peshawar Zalmi SELL Peshawar Zalmi 100¢ $9 75d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans 51¢ $4 75d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans 51¢ $1 75d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 48¢ $5 75d
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Peshawar Zalmi BUY Peshawar Zalmi 57¢ $5 75d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians SELL Rajasthan Royals 42¢ $5 76d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 58¢ $5 76d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Punjab Kings SELL Punjab Kings 50¢ $4 77d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 61¢ $5 77d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians BUY Rajasthan Royals 42¢ $5 77d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad $0 78d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 11¢ $1 78d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 79d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 98¢ $57 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.51 · official $165.51 (match) · 53 history records