Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x557a…9b21 sports 1020 markets active 10h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$125 (+2%) realized +$125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%499W / 520L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$79
14 days−$98
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$95
other 15% −$54
world 1% −$35
politics 0% −$13
crypto 0% −$6
finance 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 41% -15.1%
≤30d 458 +1.2% -8.4% 48% 47% -11.4%
≤90d 1019 +3.0% -6.8% 49% 48% -9.5%
all 1019 +3.0% -6.8% 49% 48% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 48% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 47% -18.2%
15% -23.9% 45% -26.1%
20% -31.3% 42% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses499 / 520
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1019 / 1020
History coverage68d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1019 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $6 +$16 +293%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 +$6 +154%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $55 +$8 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $26 +$36 +137%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $14 +$14 +103%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $19 −$10 -52%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $5 +$3 +69%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $25 +$10 +38%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 +$4 +16%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $14 +$9 +66%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $7 +$7 +99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 +$3 +49%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 +$13 +407%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $17 +$18 +103%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 +$9 +308%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +221%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 +$12 +603%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 9h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 96¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 90¢ $8 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $3 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $63 9h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 37¢ $4 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 87¢ $55 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $63 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $26 12h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 97¢ $28 12h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 40¢ $9 30h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL TDK 60¢ $9 30h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 46¢ $9 30h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 91¢ $9 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $36 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $35 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $25 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $27 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 85¢ $24 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $23 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $14 32h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 97¢ $14 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 32h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 64¢ $10 32h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 49¢ $5 32h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 95¢ $10 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2334 history records