Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:42:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

55
0x557a…d8b4
crypto · 124 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
−$1,739 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,731 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$1,731
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses48 / 71
Open positions5
Markets (closed)119 / 124
History coverage332d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 5 History 119 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 79¢ 57¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-27%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026? No 77¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 89¢ 51¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Rockies 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 17 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday? No 91¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 17 be between 3,200,000 and 3,400,000? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times August 1–August 8? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Mystics vs Lynx Mystics 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Lions vs. Falcons Falcons 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 17 be between 2,800,000 and 3,000,000? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Guardians vs. White Sox White Sox 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times August 1–August 8? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 17 be between 3,000,000 and 3,200,000? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $78 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$25 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$52 +490%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 20? Mar 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $3 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $3 +$1 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $3 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 16? Mar 16 $3 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? Mar 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 14? Mar 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Delaware State Hornets vs. Morgan State Bears Mar 13 $1 $0 +40%
Phoenix: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Kamil Majchrzak Mar 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Santiago: Gonzalo Bueno vs Franco Agamenone Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Santiago: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Nicolas Moreno De Alboran Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 17 be between 3,200, Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 17 be between 3,000, Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 17 be between 2,800, Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 17 be between 2,600, Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass? Aug 17 $8 −$6 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 27% +$96
crypto 26% −$705
world 18% +$274
tech 15% −$911
sports 7% −$236
other 7% −$244
finance 0% −$9
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $30 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $52 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $4 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -2.4% -11.7% 48% 39% -4.3%
≤30d 23 -2.4% -11.7% 48% 39% -4.3%
≤90d 29 -4.1% -13.3% 55% 34% -5.4%
all 119 -32.3% -38.7% 40% 22% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.7% 22% -32.4%
10% -44.6% 14% -38.9%
15% -49.9% 12% -44.8%
20% -54.8% 8% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.02 · official $22.92 · 256 history records