Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:36:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5579…3d04 other 234 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%13W / 221L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$27
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$36
sports 22% −$13
politics 11% −$8
culture 7% −$7
economics 5% −$4
world 5% −$4
crypto 4% −$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 234 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses13 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)234 / 234
History coverage129d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 234 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $126 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $366 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $740 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $155 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $184 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $640 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $153 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $275 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $217 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $504 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $230 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $247 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $541 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $403 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $138 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $162 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 0m
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 3h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 4h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 6h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 7h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 15h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 17h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 18h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 20h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 25h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 26h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 28h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 29h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 31h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $54 33h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 37h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 39h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 40h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 42h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 44h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 46h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1305 history records