Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5578…8241 world 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 344d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate27%26W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$14
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$29
other 25% +$5
sports 14% −$1
politics 8% −$1
economics 6% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 2% −$6
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.2% -10.6% 8% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 32 -2.0% -11.4% 28% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 75 -2.2% -11.5% 29% 1% -9.8%
all 95 -1.8% -11.2% 27% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 1% -9.9%
10% -19.7% 1% -18.5%
15% -27.4% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses26 / 69
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage344d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $71 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $64 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $8 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $65 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $67 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $84 −$8 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $229 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $73 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $155 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $51 −$3 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $89 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $247 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $176 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $78 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $41 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $80 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $57 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $237 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $109 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $70 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $75 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $16 −$5 -33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $76 −$4 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $186 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $79 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $78 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $75 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $82 −$4 -5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $90 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $266 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $61 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $176 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $83 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $100 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $52 −$2 -4%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $3 $0 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $92 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $182 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $85 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $174 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $247 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $86 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $71 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $71 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $64 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $64 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $34 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $34 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $50 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $50 29h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $8 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $8 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $13 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $28 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $23 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $51 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $65 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $65 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $54 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $72 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $72 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.10 · official $0.00 · 442 history records