Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:41:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5576…7086 crypto 112 markets active 1d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate47%53W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$13
sports 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -18.8% -26.5% 45% 32% -28.4%
≤30d 112 -9.5% -18.2% 47% 35% -11.9%
≤90d 112 -9.5% -18.2% 47% 35% -11.9%
all 112 -9.5% -18.2% 47% 35% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 35% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 27% -20.3%
15% -33.1% 16% -28.0%
20% -39.7% 10% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses53 / 59
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage7d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$5 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 336 history records