Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5571…23bb other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$173 (+7%) realized +$173 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$116
sports 32% −$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.1% -5.8% 44% 44% -14.7%
≤30d 9 +4.1% -5.8% 44% 44% -14.7%
≤90d 9 +4.1% -5.8% 44% 44% -14.7%
all 9 +4.1% -5.8% 44% 44% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 44% -14.7%
10% -14.8% 44% -22.9%
15% -23.1% 22% -30.3%
20% -30.6% 22% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$89 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage6d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Jun 27 $487 −$36 -7%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $370 −$152 -41%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $460 −$106 -23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $201 +$131 +65%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $423 +$126 +30%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $439 −$125 -28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $121 +$28 +23%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 +$13 +82%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $42 −$26 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 46¢ $208 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 47¢ $97 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 47¢ $124 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $21 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $154 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 26¢ $154 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $166 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $166 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $166 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 54¢ $166 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $217 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 46¢ $217 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $26 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 45¢ $26 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 54¢ $17 6h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 6h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 6h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 54¢ $17 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $35 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $266 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $331 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $146 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $54 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $403 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $260 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records