Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x556c…c9d7 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$3
other 22% −$2
politics 3% $0
crypto 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.1%
all 36 -3.5% -12.6% 42% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage460d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $6 $0 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $42 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $38 +$2 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $37 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $36 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $27 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $37 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $74 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Jun 04 $8 −$2 -22%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C May 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 23 $0 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 22 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 22 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 21 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 17 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $8 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $44 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $4 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $6 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $2 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $6 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $43 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records