Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5569…c927 sports 778 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,239 (-11%) realized −$3,239 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate32%249W / 527L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day41.7pace
Fees−$301est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$551
14 days−$787
30 days−$833
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,771
other 12% −$268
world 4% +$42
politics 2% +$134
crypto 1% −$66
weather 1% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -44.3% -49.6% 18% 14% -42.4%
≤30d 292 -17.2% -25.1% 26% 20% -22.6%
≤90d 776 -8.2% -16.9% 32% 24% -15.5%
all 776 -8.2% -16.9% 32% 24% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 24% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 20% -23.6%
15% -32.1% 17% -31.0%
20% -38.8% 14% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$3,239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses249 / 527
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$301
Open positions1
Markets (closed)776 / 778
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day41.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 776 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Suzan Lamens 72¢ 72¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $13 −$7 -50%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$2 -37%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $13 +$2 +18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $15 −$9 -63%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +77%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $6 −$1 -10%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 14 $9 −$4 -41%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 167.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $16 −$6 -40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$3 -29%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $11 −$2 -22%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 +$1 +4%
Spread: Fenerbahce (-4.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $14 +$8 +57%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $14 −$4 -27%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $9 −$1 -6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $58 −$20 -35%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $21 −$1 -6%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 12 $26 −$1 -6%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $7 −$2 -28%
Set Handicap: D'agostino (-1.5) vs Giraldi (+1.5) Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $15 $0 -3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-1 Jun 12 $9 −$2 -26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $45 +$7 +15%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 $0 -4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $31 −$1 -3%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $16 −$4 -25%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $18 $0 +1%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $10 +$2 +24%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $32 −$32 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $39 +$10 +25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $8 −$1 -12%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $23 −$7 -29%
Exact Score: Goiás EC 0 - 0 Grêmio Novorizontino? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 10 $16 $0 -2%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Sweden vs. Italy: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $69 −$37 -54%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $31 +$3 +9%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $45 −$6 -13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $31 +$5 +16%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $6 +$2 +31%
Iceland vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $3 −$2 -84%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 72¢ $12 44m
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Tunisia 28¢ $4 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 46¢ $4 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Tunisia 57¢ $3 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 55¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 55¢ $1 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $4 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $7 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 100¢ $15 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $4 3h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 84¢ $13 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 74¢ $6 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $6 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 27¢ $5 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 91¢ $2 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $2 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 68¢ $1 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 68¢ $1 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 77¢ $2 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 85¢ $6 11h
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs SELL Alliance 100¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Alliance 83¢ $5 21h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $6 22h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1 23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 48¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.44 · official $11.44 (match) · 3500 history records