Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
55 0x5568…a68c crypto 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate62%111W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$2
politics 18% −$4
other 12% +$1
sports 9% +$20
world 5% +$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 2% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +7.2% -3.0% 77% 15% -8.9%
≤90d 95 +3.8% -6.1% 78% 13% -9.2%
all 178 -1.9% -11.2% 62% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 10% -9.4%
10% -19.7% 8% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 7% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses111 / 67
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)178 / 179
History coverage164d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$235 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 100¢ 99¢ $108 $107 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C or below on May 30? Jun 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Cho Gil-hyeong win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 26 $14 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 26 $107 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $7 +$2 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $98 $0 +0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 30 $97 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 30 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 29 $128 $0 +0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 28 $128 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ May 28 $4 +$7 +158%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $135 $0 +0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 27 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $135 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $140 $0 +0%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $144 $0 -0%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Zakharova vs Karolina Muchova May 26 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? May 26 $136 $0 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Clara Tauson vs Daria Snigur May 25 $4 +$6 +158%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 24? May 25 $134 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $137 $0 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $6 +$3 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $129 $0 +0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $382.50 Week of May 18 202 May 23 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 22 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $134 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $134 $0 +0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 19 $6 +$8 +129%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $121 $0 +0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $126 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 17? May 18 $126 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $126 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 14? May 15 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 13? May 14 $126 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $126 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 12 $125 $0 +0%
Will Daria Kasatkina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 11 $125 $0 -0%
KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Ak Bars Kazan May 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10? May 11 $131 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? May 10 $124 $0 +0%
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 09 $124 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of May 4 above $460? May 09 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 7? May 08 $129 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $129 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$235 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $108 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $107 26d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 27d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $97 27d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $97 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 74¢ $7 27d
Will Cho Gil-hyeong win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial BUY No 100¢ $13 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $118 28d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C or below on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $11 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $128 29d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $128 29d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $128 29d
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY GLYPH 39¢ $5 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $135 30d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $135 30d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $135 30d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $135 30d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $135 30d
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY ALGO Esports 38¢ $4 30d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 54¢ $5 31d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $144 31d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $144 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $136 32d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Zakharova vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 88¢ $7 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $134 33d
Roland Garros WTA: Clara Tauson vs Daria Snigur BUY Daria Snigur 38¢ $4 33d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $137 33d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $137 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.13 · official $107.13 (match) · 379 history records