Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

55
0x5565…4b3b
weather · 794 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,154 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,083 · open −$73
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,300
Realized−$5,083
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses572 / 370
Open positions141
Markets (closed)942 / 794
History coverage20d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day146.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 141 History 942 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,636
7 days−$4,895
14 days−$5,216
30 days−$5,083
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 97¢ 97¢ $152 $152 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $138 $148 +$10 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? No 92¢ 96¢ $135 $140 +$5 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $118 $122 +$5 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $66 $68 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 94¢ 73¢ $74 $58 −$17 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 89¢ 98¢ $43 $48 +$4 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? No 97¢ 97¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? No 94¢ 94¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 97¢ 96¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? No 95¢ 91¢ $43 $41 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? No 97¢ 97¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? No 98¢ 95¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? No 91¢ 90¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? No 97¢ 96¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? No 87¢ 88¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? No 98¢ 97¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? No 88¢ 100¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 14? No 97¢ 99¢ $33 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jazz vs. Nuggets Jun 13 $1 −$1 -87%
Spread: Hawks (-2.5) Jun 13 $0 +$2 +386%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Jun 13 $0 −$58 -22698%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 −$9 -139%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-05? Jun 13 $0 +$5 +959%
Knicks vs. Hornets Jun 13 $3 −$3 -102%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 13 $0 −$1 -340%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 6-12? Jun 13 $0 $0 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 13 $113 −$126 -112%
Thunder vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5 Jun 13 $2 −$5 -200%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jun 13 $7 −$9 -122%
Pelicans vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$2 -202%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Getafe CF (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $37 −$74 -200%
Pelicans vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5 Jun 13 $3 −$6 -200%
Spread: Suns (-17.5) Jun 13 $1 −$2 -200%
Spread: Jazz (-4.5) Jun 13 $2 −$4 -200%
Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5 Jun 13 $1 −$2 -200%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group Sta Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Jun 13 $13 −$27 -200%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$4 -210%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$2 -200%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-15.5) Jun 13 $1 −$3 -200%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -140%
Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$5 -200%
Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$2 -200%
Will AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-02-20? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-03-01? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-12.5) Jun 13 $2 −$3 -200%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-03-01? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 13 $3 −$4 -107%
76ers vs. Hornets Jun 13 $10 −$22 -224%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-02-22? Jun 13 $107 −$141 -131%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5) Jun 13 $1 −$3 -266%
Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies: O/U 245.5 Jun 13 $1 −$2 -200%
Spread: Suns (-8.5) Jun 13 $3 −$7 -200%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Jun 13 $14 −$17 -126%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elche CF vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 55% +$147
weather 45% +$526
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $10 35m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $6 35m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $10 35m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $6 35m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 37m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 38m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $22 42m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $8 56m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $12 57m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $8 57m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $8 57m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 860 -30.0% -36.6% 59% 15% -26.1%
≤30d 942 -27.8% -34.6% 61% 15% -19.8%
≤90d 942 -27.8% -34.6% 61% 15% -19.8%
all 942 -27.8% -34.6% 61% 15% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover146.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.6% 15% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -40.9% 2% -27.5%
15% -46.6% 2% -34.5%
20% -51.8% 2% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,300.31 · official $3,293.09 (match) · 3500 history records