Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:26:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
55 0x555c…ee28 other 784 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,832 (+5%) realized +$6,617 · open +$215
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate73%529W / 192L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$150est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$9,678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days+$1,091
14 days+$2,668
30 days+$2,134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$5,630
sports 23% −$87
politics 12% −$1,902
world 10% −$34
economics 1% −$154
crypto 1% +$142
tech 1% +$87
finance 1% +$23
weather 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +2.7% -7.1% 81% 26% +1.1%
≤30d 118 +19.4% +8.0% 72% 31% -2.2%
≤90d 556 +2.9% -6.9% 73% 25% -6.6%
all 721 +1.3% -8.3% 73% 24% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 24% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 18% -16.0%
15% -25.1% 15% -24.1%
20% -32.5% 14% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$103 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$9,678
Realized+$6,617
Unrealized+$215
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses529 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$150
Open positions79
Markets (closed)721 / 784
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$168
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 79 History 721 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 55¢ 92¢ $308 $518 +$210 (+68%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $499 $500 +$1 (+0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $432 $445 +$13 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 54¢ 86¢ $269 $432 +$164 (+61%)
World Cup: Winless Team? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $389 $400 +$10 (+3%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 93¢ 97¢ $372 $387 +$15 (+4%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No 88¢ 93¢ $350 $372 +$22 (+6%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $340 $370 +$30 (+9%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 61¢ 60¢ $317 $315 −$3 (-1%)
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No 95¢ 94¢ $285 $283 −$2 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? No 89¢ 96¢ $259 $277 +$18 (+7%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 93¢ 91¢ $279 $273 −$6 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $160 $265 +$105 (+66%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $150 $235 +$85 (+57%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 57¢ $176 $230 +$54 (+31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 60¢ 88¢ $150 $219 +$69 (+46%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 45¢ 66¢ $150 $218 +$68 (+46%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ $59 $202 +$143 (+242%)
Will there be 50+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $199 +$1 (+0%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? No 94¢ 96¢ $188 $192 +$4 (+2%)
Will Roger Federer play at Wimbledon? No 95¢ 98¢ $181 $186 +$5 (+3%)
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? No 88¢ 92¢ $176 $185 +$9 (+5%)
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? No 95¢ 91¢ $190 $181 −$9 (-5%)
Will 1+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 59¢ $195 $177 −$18 (-9%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $160 $167 +$7 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $357 +$43 +12%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 20 $300 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $390 +$275 +70%
Will Toulouse win? Jun 19 $1,395 +$2 +0%
Will Racing 92 win? Jun 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Leinster win? Jun 19 $249 $0 +0%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 19 $85 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $500 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 18 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Miami" during UFC 250? Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $328 −$328 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $500 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $112 +$108 +97%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $173 +$27 +16%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $197 +$243 +124%
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Jun 17 $162 +$38 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $292 +$308 +105%
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $199 +$1 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $307 −$302 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay? Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Jérémy Doku be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $89 +$1 +2%
Will Carlo Ancelotti be the next manager of Crystal Palace? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Pep Guardiola be the next manager of Crystal Palace? Jun 15 $65 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $285 −$17 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $339 +$301 +89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $29 −$11 -38%
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $146 +$40 +27%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $52 +$26 +49%
NBA Finals: Player to Record a 5x5? Jun 14 $288 +$12 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $306 +$352 +115%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $186 +$198 +106%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
NBA Finals: Will there be a Breen Bang in Game 4? Jun 11 $9 +$7 +82%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 5? Jun 11 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 11 $102 +$38 +37%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 11 $282 +$18 +6%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $110 +$205 +186%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 61¢ $321 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $665 3h
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 54¢ $6 4h
Will Leinster win? BUY Yes 100¢ $159 5h
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $19 6h
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 6h
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 6h
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $19 6h
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 6h
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $40 6h
Will Toulouse win? BUY Yes 100¢ $264 6h
Will Toulouse win? BUY Yes 100¢ $901 6h
Will Leinster win? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 6h
Will Leinster win? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 6h
Will Toulouse win? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 7h
Will Leinster win? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 7h
Will the match end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $85 7h
Will Leinster win? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 7h
Will Leinster win? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 7h
Will Racing 92 win? BUY No 99¢ $13 7h
Will the match end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $15 7h
Will the match end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $14 7h
Will Toulouse win? BUY Yes 100¢ $63 7h
Will Toulouse win? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 7h
Will Toulouse win? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 7h
Will Toulouse win? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 7h
Will Toulouse win? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 7h
Will Toulouse win? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 7h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 9h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,677.99 · official $9,678.23 (match) · 3500 history records