Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x555b…d14f other 4 markets active 1d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$608 (-21%) realized −$285 · open −$323
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$723per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$345
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -15.9%
≤30d 1 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -15.9%
≤90d 1 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -15.9%
all 1 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 0% -15.9%
10% -24.0% 0% -24.0%
15% -31.3% 0% -31.3%
20% -38.1% 0% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$22 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,270
Realized−$285
Unrealized−$323
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$723
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,224 $1,021 −$204 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $309 $197 −$112 (-36%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $60 $52 −$7 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $315 −$22 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $200 31h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $201 31h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $58 31h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $80 31h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $154 31h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $292 31h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $62 31h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $315 37h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 38h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 38h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $428 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $550 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $701 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $695 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,270.40 · official $1,270.40 (match) · 20 history records