Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x555a…49d5 weather 1555 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$198 (-1%) realized −$198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate91%1396W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$529now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$11
14 days−$2
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$132
crypto 6% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 358 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 1091 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1477 -2.4% -11.7% 93% 9% -10.9%
all 1527 -3.0% -12.2% 91% 10% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 10% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 9% -19.6%
15% -28.3% 6% -27.3%
20% -35.3% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$529
Realized−$198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1396 / 131
Open positions26
Markets (closed)1527 / 1555
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 1527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on June Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 18m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 19m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 22m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 23m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 24m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 57m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $529.46 · official $528.64 (match) · 3421 history records