Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5558…925d sports 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,057 (-6%) realized −$1,054 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate69%98W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$232
7 days+$232
14 days−$806
30 days−$1,211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$154
other 20% +$288
world 12% −$1,501
finance 9% +$147
crypto 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +30.9% +18.4% 78% 67% +21.0%
≤30d 142 +0.1% -9.4% 69% 50% -15.7%
≤90d 142 +0.1% -9.4% 69% 50% -15.7%
all 142 +0.1% -9.4% 69% 50% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 50% -15.7%
10% -18.1% 34% -23.8%
15% -26.0% 18% -31.2%
20% -33.3% 11% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$83 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$386
Realized−$1,054
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses98 / 44
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions5
Markets (closed)142 / 147
History coverage28d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $142 $141 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $83 $82 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $75 $74 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? No 72¢ 72¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $65 +$23 +36%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $134 +$38 +28%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $88 +$8 +9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $83 +$16 +19%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $69 +$31 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $92 +$118 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $41 +$19 +46%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 22 $65 −$12 -18%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 22 $53 −$8 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $851 −$851 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $123 +$67 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $140 +$25 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $154 +$104 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $60 +$25 +42%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $62 +$18 +29%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 10 $269 −$269 -100%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $45 +$15 +32%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $48 +$2 +5%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 09 $77 −$76 -99%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Akira Santillan Jun 09 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $49 +$13 +26%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Jonas Forejtek Jun 09 $9 +$4 +43%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $82 +$18 +22%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Modena: Xinyu Gao vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 09 $56 +$14 +26%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $48 −$47 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $192 +$8 +4%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $83 −$83 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $88 −$88 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $48 +$26 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $94 +$6 +6%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $218 +$64 +29%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $91 +$7 +8%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $75 −$75 -100%
Ilkley: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 08 $168 +$18 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $428 −$428 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $475 +$25 +5%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $219 +$31 +14%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman Jun 07 $81 +$19 +23%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $76 +$24 +32%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 07 $131 −$62 -47%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $70 +$30 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $75 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 72¢ $73 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 88¢ $88 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 90¢ $90 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $83 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 96¢ $96 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $88 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 33h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 33h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $92 41h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $53 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $45 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $150 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $58 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $164 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $58 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.73 · official $385.73 (match) · 514 history records