Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:09:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5556…2759 sports 256 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,054 (-8%) realized −$9,808 · open −$246
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%90W / 151L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$481per market
Trades / day139.1pace
Fees−$2,455est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,728
7 days−$6,199
14 days−$10,482
30 days−$10,342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$11,016
other 0% +$427
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +4.6% -5.3% 34% 28% -18.7%
≤30d 241 +0.7% -8.9% 37% 32% -17.9%
≤90d 241 +0.7% -8.9% 37% 32% -17.9%
all 241 +0.7% -8.9% 37% 32% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 32% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 27% -25.8%
15% -25.6% 24% -32.9%
20% -32.9% 21% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$658) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$263 vs −$225 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$2,682
Realized−$9,808
Unrealized−$246
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses90 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$2,455
Open positions15
Markets (closed)241 / 256
History coverage16d
Avg bet$481
Trades / day139.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Nigma Galaxy 42¢ 42¢ $635 $637 +$2 (+0%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Twisted Minds 30¢ 28¢ $399 $379 −$20 (-5%)
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) Enjoy 37¢ 26¢ $518 $360 −$158 (-30%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Team Spirit 80¢ 81¢ $321 $327 +$6 (+2%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Natus Vincere 54¢ 55¢ $270 $272 +$2 (+1%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Natus Vincere 52¢ 54¢ $227 $231 +$4 (+2%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 31¢ 24¢ $157 $124 −$33 (-21%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Enjoy 13¢ 8¢ $159 $100 −$58 (-37%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Geekay Esports 19¢ 20¢ $55 $57 +$1 (+3%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Enjoy 22¢ 10¢ $110 $52 −$58 (-52%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Inner Circle 35¢ 36¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+4%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Team Spirit 75¢ 90¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+19%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Team Secret 23¢ 24¢ $27 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Rebels Gaming 39¢ 40¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4ikibamboni 33¢ 34¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Heretics vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Heretics 25¢ 26¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 54¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $175 +$25 +14%
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) Jun 23 $329 +$21 +6%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $1,873 −$727 -39%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $190 +$5 +3%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $311 −$311 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $404 −$404 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $381 −$381 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close Jun 23 $678 $0 +0%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $91 +$1 +1%
Game Handicap: Bald (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) Jun 23 $1,265 −$868 -69%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $720 +$1 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 22 $184 +$342 +185%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $615 +$213 +35%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $220 +$195 +89%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $404 +$40 +10%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Inner Circle (+1.5) Jun 22 $1,080 +$559 +52%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5) Jun 22 $977 +$213 +22%
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs GLYPH (+1.5) Jun 22 $322 −$312 -97%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) Jun 22 $265 −$265 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $145 −$145 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $157 −$157 -100%
Map Handicap: PR (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) Jun 22 $150 −$150 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $390 −$353 -90%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $220 −$220 -100%
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) Jun 22 $428 −$428 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $475 −$13 -3%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $342 +$881 +257%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $1,309 −$89 -7%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $344 +$215 +63%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 22 $227 +$422 +186%
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) Jun 22 $620 +$380 +61%
Game Handicap: GLYPH (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) Jun 22 $968 +$352 +36%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $1,061 +$528 +50%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $390 +$610 +156%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $677 +$692 +102%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $707 +$24 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $81 −$78 -96%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $168 −$22 -13%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 21 $747 −$386 -52%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu Jun 21 $1,369 −$13 -1%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $1,839 +$636 +35%
Rainbow Six Siege: INTZ vs Black Dragons e-Sports (BO1) - South Americ Jun 21 $128 −$128 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY Rebels Gaming 39¢ $5 18m
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY Rebels Gaming 39¢ $3 19m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $270 20m
Rainbow Six Siege: Heretics vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Sta BUY Heretics 25¢ $3 24m
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Leagu BUY Team Secret 23¢ $3 25m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 82¢ $8 25m
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY Rebels Gaming 39¢ $2 25m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 80¢ $29 25m
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Leagu BUY Team Secret 23¢ $3 27m
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY Rebels Gaming 39¢ $6 28m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 81¢ $101 29m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 80¢ $400 39m
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Twisted Minds 30¢ $8 43m
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Twisted Minds 30¢ $12 43m
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Twisted Minds 30¢ $12 43m
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Twisted Minds 30¢ $70 43m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 42¢ $210 54m
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Twisted Minds 30¢ $150 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 80¢ $278 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 43¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 79¢ $277 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $155 2h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) BUY Enjoy 35¢ $175 2h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) BUY Enjoy 37¢ $1 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 3h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Leagu BUY Team Secret 23¢ $0 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 75¢ $30 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner BUY Enjoy 22¢ $110 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 43¢ $215 3h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 33¢ $8 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,682.21 · official $2,715.31 · 2529 history records