Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:08:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
55 0x5555…2af1 sports 130 markets active 3h ago coverage 98d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28,211 (-7%) realized −$28,244 · open +$33
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%50W / 192L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,300per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Fees−$5,943est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$26,416
world 5% −$3,594
other 3% −$288
finance 1% −$1,114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-58.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -87.2% -88.4% 5% 5% -87.7%
≤30d 158 -75.4% -77.7% 10% 9% -73.7%
≤90d 237 -52.6% -57.1% 21% 19% -49.4%
all 242 -53.6% -58.0% 21% 19% -50.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.0% 19% -50.0%
10% -62.0% 19% -54.8%
15% ← realistic here -65.7% 17% -59.2%
20% -69.1% 16% -63.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$3,302) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,211 vs −$2,768 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$28,244
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses50 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$5,943
Open positions3
Markets (closed)242 / 130
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$3,300
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 65¢ 93¢ $161 $230 +$68 (+42%)
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Yes $53 $19 −$35 (-65%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 58¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 193 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pistons vs. Raptors Jun 15 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) Jun 15 $298 −$298 -100%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Jun 15 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5 Jun 15 $1,145 −$1,145 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-8.5) Jun 15 $868 −$868 -100%
Clippers vs. Cavaliers Jun 15 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Hawks Jun 15 $3,840 −$3,840 -100%
Rockets vs. Wizards: O/U 222.5 Jun 15 $531 −$531 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 15 $3,301 −$3,301 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Jun 15 $3,900 −$3,900 -100%
Rams vs. Falcons: O/U 50.5 Jun 15 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 15 $860 −$860 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 15 $2,412 −$2,412 -100%
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Jun 15 $10,169 −$10,169 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-12.5) Jun 15 $6,439 −$6,439 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Jun 15 $25,000 −$25,000 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Penguins Jun 15 $4,400 −$4,400 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-4.5) Jun 15 $165 −$165 -100%
Kings vs. Lakers Jun 15 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Wizards vs. Magic Jun 15 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Hawks vs. Hornets Jun 15 $2,573 −$2,573 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-08? Jun 15 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 15 $2,250 −$2,250 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Spurs Jun 15 $2,160 −$2,160 -100%
Pistons vs. Clippers Jun 15 $5,840 −$5,840 -100%
Northeastern Huskies vs. Hampton Pirates: O/U 146.5 Jun 15 $846 −$846 -100%
Hornets vs. Hawks Jun 15 $2,250 −$2,250 -100%
Elche CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,570 −$3,570 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 15 $1,840 −$1,840 -100%
Nuggets vs. Bulls Jun 15 $1,249 −$1,249 -100%
O/U 51.5 Jun 15 $3,456 −$3,456 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Jun 15 $2,040 −$2,040 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder Jun 15 $820 −$820 -100%
Miami vs. Ohio State Jun 15 $36,979 −$36,979 -100%
Suns vs. Wizards Jun 15 $2,640 −$2,640 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 Jun 15 $2,160 −$2,160 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Panthers vs. Lightning Jun 15 $1,480 −$1,480 -100%
Long Beach State Beach vs. Bakersfield Roadrunners: O/U 153.5 Jun 15 $2,878 −$2,878 -100%
UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Colorado State Rams Jun 15 $216 −$216 -100%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Jun 15 $4,340 −$4,340 -100%
Rangers vs. Capitals Jun 15 $1,640 −$1,640 -100%
Capitals vs. Senators Jun 15 $5,814 −$5,814 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 15 $2,160 −$2,160 -100%
Celtics vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5 Jun 15 $2,820 −$2,820 -100%
Penguins vs. Bruins Jun 15 $2,820 −$2,820 -100%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5 Jun 15 $1,740 −$1,740 -100%
Eagles vs. Cowboys Jun 15 $3,360 −$3,360 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $3,330 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $3,320 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $10,014 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $7,992 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $333 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $176 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $145 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $145 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $147 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $1 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $2 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $5 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $331 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $333 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $1 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $1 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $57 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $233 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $2 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $1 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $52 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $5 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $76 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $1,106 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $757 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $586 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.15 · official $250.15 (match) · 3500 history records