Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
55 0x5555…5426 other 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%27W / 51L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$4
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$11
sports 27% +$15
world 20% −$9
other 8% $0
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
finance 1% +$12
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 17% -9.1%
≤30d 17 -2.5% -11.8% 24% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 31 -1.7% -11.0% 29% 6% -9.5%
all 78 -2.8% -12.1% 35% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 4% -9.5%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses27 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage474d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 65¢ 66¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $337 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $1 $0 +17%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $151 +$9 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $150 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $22 −$5 -22%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $90 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $123 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $316 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $152 +$2 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $169 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $11 −$5 -44%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $156 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $173 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $176 −$3 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $274 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $175 +$2 +1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $26 −$9 -33%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $65 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $57 +$12 +21%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $104 +$2 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,010 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $849 +$8 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,013 −$10 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 12 $920 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $745 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $917 +$4 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $917 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 28 $9 $0 +1%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 08 $2 $0 -27%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 06 $7 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6? Jun 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 04 $3 −$1 -16%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $8 $0 +6%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -48%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 31 $11 −$1 -8%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $7 +$1 +16%
Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in May? May 26 $4 $0 -7%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 23 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $120 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 55¢ $114 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 55¢ $45 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $62 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $88 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $115 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $150 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $43 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $43 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $146 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $150 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $42 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $42 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $93 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $93 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 14¢ $17 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $22 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $0 7d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $4 7d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $4 7d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $81 7d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $90 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $123 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $123 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.52 · official $118.68 · 295 history records