Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
55 0x5555…5a4e crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$53 (+24%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%28W / 37L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day45.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$47
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +6.3% -3.8% 43% 38% +12.4%
≤30d 65 +6.3% -3.8% 43% 38% +12.4%
≤90d 65 +6.3% -3.8% 43% 38% +12.4%
all 65 +6.3% -3.8% 43% 38% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 38% +12.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 38% +1.6%
15% -21.4% 35% -8.2%
20% -29.1% 29% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses28 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day45.7
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$11 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$8 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $9 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records