Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
55 0x5555…83fa other 12 markets active 4d ago coverage 140d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,306 (-41%) realized −$3,306 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$679per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,870
14 days−$2,870
30 days−$2,870
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$3,332
sports 15% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.2% -5.7% 40% 40% -44.1%
≤30d 10 +4.2% -5.7% 40% 40% -44.1%
≤90d 10 +4.2% -5.7% 40% 40% -44.1%
all 11 -5.3% -14.3% 36% 36% -47.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 36% -47.5%
10% -22.5% 36% -52.5%
15% -30.0% 36% -57.1%
20% -36.9% 27% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$516 vs −$776 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,306
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage140d
Avg bet$679
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $357 −$349 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4,314 −$4,300 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $813 +$908 +112%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $306 +$694 +226%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $307 +$252 +82%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $507 −$23 -5%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $203 −$32 -16%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $504 +$210 +42%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $498 −$498 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $2,303 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,010 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? A BUY 11¢ $103 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 38¢ $559 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $610 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $484 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $507 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 41¢ $171 6d
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $203 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 6d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan BUY China 27¢ $498 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records