Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
55 0x5555…82c5 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$539 (+16%) realized +$514 · open +$25
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days+$1,184
14 days+$1,026
30 days+$1,026
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,062
other 4% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +18.8% +7.5% 50% 50% +31.2%
≤30d 29 +1.3% -8.3% 41% 41% +23.6%
≤90d 29 +1.3% -8.3% 41% 41% +23.6%
all 29 +1.3% -8.3% 41% 41% +23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 41% +23.6%
10% -17.1% 41% +11.8%
15% -25.1% 41% +1.0%
20% -32.4% 41% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$57 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$514
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage13d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Yi Zhou Yi Zhou 45¢ 65¢ $56 $81 +$25 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $313 +$357 +114%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $75 −$73 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $51 +$100 +197%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $225 +$152 +68%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $241 +$207 +86%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $153 +$301 +197%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 +$213 +416%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $120 −$119 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $101 −$100 -98%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $101 +$74 +73%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $198 +$151 +76%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $173 +$155 +90%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 18 $101 +$87 +86%
Set 1 Winner: Marozsan vs Fritz Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $159 +$94 +60%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $55 +$104 +188%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $58 −$57 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $49 −$48 -99%
Set Handicap: Giron (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Boogaard (+1.5) Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Yi Zhou BUY Yi Zhou 45¢ $57 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY 23¢ $102 14h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $102 16h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $313 20h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 22¢ $75 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $102 2d
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 10¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $151 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $377 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $73 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 17¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $152 2d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 53¢ $241 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $102 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey BUY James Duckworth 40¢ $102 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY 40¢ $224 3d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 58¢ $120 4d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 51¢ $101 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY 19¢ $51 4d
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen SELL Otto Virtanen 100¢ $175 4d
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 57¢ $101 4d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $175 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY 33¢ $153 4d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 57¢ $101 5d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $173 5d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 53¢ $173 5d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 28¢ $96 5d
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 14¢ $21 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.19 · official $81.19 (match) · 49 history records