Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

55
0x5550…9f36
politics · 202 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$12 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses51 / 146
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)197 / 202
History coverage97d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 5 History 197 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $19 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1AM ET Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 -2%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $8 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $29 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $36 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10AM ET May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 25 $27 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? May 25 $10 $0 -2%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 25 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 46% −$5
other 26% −$2
sports 12% −$4
crypto 10% −$1
world 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $6 48m
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $6 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $9 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $9 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 7d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $8 7d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 7d
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 7d
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $9 7d
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 8d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 84 -0.4% -9.9% 8% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 162 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.9%
all 197 -0.2% -9.7% 26% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.99 (match) · 1082 history records