Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

55 0x5547…910a sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$1,172 (-15%) realized −$1,172 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR32%break-even

Win rate48%12W / 13L

Whale WR83%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$255per market

Trades / day15.0pace

Fees−$44est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +32%

net ROI/market (all)-33.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	-26.6%	-33.6%	48%	32%	-24.0%
≤30d	25	-26.6%	-33.6%	48%	32%	-24.0%
≤90d	25	-26.6%	-33.6%	48%	32%	-24.0%
all	25	-26.6%	-33.6%	48%	32%	-24.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-33.6%	32%	-24.0%
10%	-40.0%	16%	-31.3%
15%	-45.8%	16%	-37.9%
20%	-51.1%	12%	-44.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -17% → late -35% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$49 vs −$137 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.33 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1,172

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses12 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)83%

Est. fees paid−$44

Open positions0

Markets (closed)25 / 30

History coverage4d

Avg bet$255

Trades / day15.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 25 Trades

no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	Jun 16	$1,070	+$64	+6%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$78	−$77	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$20	+$10	+51%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$101	+$20	+20%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$683	+$91	+13%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 15	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$901	+$46	+5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$202	−$139	-69%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$1,213	+$37	+3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$9	+$1	+13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$240	+$15	+6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$99	−$69	-70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$202	+$117	+58%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1,005	−$1,000	-100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 13	$219	−$216	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$1,010	+$157	+16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$6	+$17	+276%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$1	−$1	-97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$121	−$41	-34%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$30	+$13	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	96¢	$701	1h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	SELL New Zealand	97¢	$0	1h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	SELL New Zealand	97¢	$324	1h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	88¢	$295	1h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	SELL New Zealand	81¢	$81	2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	47¢	$48	2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	46¢	$10	2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	41¢	$10	2h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	74¢	$74	2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$30	3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	99¢	$121	3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	82¢	$101	4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$774	7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	87¢	$683	7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	58¢	$51	14h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will IR Iran win o	BUY	11¢	$10	17h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) AND Spread: Spain (-	BUY	47¢	$51	17h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	78¢	$101	18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND	BUY	21¢	$51	19h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win o	BUY	8¢	$51	19h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR I	BUY	19¢	$51	19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	95¢	$901	24h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	36¢	$62	24h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	71¢	$202	24h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	SELL Under	89¢	$245	27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	53¢	$6	27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	72¢	$202	27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	SELL Under	64¢	$1,005	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records