Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:16:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

55 0x553f…c5d8 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$16 (-24%) realized −$16 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR11%break-even

Win rate17%3W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day5.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit68%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$2

7 days−$7

14 days−$17

30 days−$17

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +11%

net ROI/market (all)-34.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-0.9%	-10.4%	50%	33%	-27.7%
≤30d	18	-27.9%	-34.7%	17%	11%	-33.7%
≤90d	18	-27.9%	-34.7%	17%	11%	-33.7%
all	18	-27.9%	-34.7%	17%	11%	-33.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.7%	11%	-33.7%
10%	-41.0%	11%	-40.1%
15%	-46.7%	11%	-45.9%
20%	-51.9%	11%	-51.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 80% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -38% → late -18% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.21 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized−$16

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses3 / 15

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage8d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day5.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Angels	50¢	50¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$4	$0	-5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels	Jun 14	$2	+$2	+97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$17	+$1	+5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Jun 10	$2	+$2	+97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9?	Jun 08	$0	$0	-25%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8?	Jun 08	$2	−$1	-30%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 8?	Jun 08	$2	−$2	-96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9?	Jun 08	$2	−$1	-27%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June?	Jun 08	$2	$0	-10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 8?	Jun 08	$4	−$1	-18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026?	Jun 08	$2	−$2	-96%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun	Jun 08	$2	−$1	-68%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8?	Jun 08	$2	−$2	-80%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 08	$1	$0	-28%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 08	$6	−$1	-12%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 08	$3	$0	-1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	BUY Los Angeles Angels	50¢	$2	1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers	BUY Texas Rangers	60¢	$2	19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	49¢	$4	37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	50¢	$2	43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	50¢	$2	2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels	BUY Los Angeles Angels	50¢	$2	3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox	BUY Los Angeles Dodgers	60¢	$2	3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox	BUY Los Angeles Dodgers	60¢	$2	3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox	BUY Los Angeles Dodgers	60¢	$2	3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox	BUY Los Angeles Dodgers	60¢	$2	3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	SELL No	100¢	$11	4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY No	90¢	$2	6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	50¢	$2	6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY No	90¢	$2	6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY No	90¢	$2	6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY No	90¢	$2	6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	SELL No	89¢	$7	6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY No	90¢	$2	7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY No	90¢	$2	7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY No	90¢	$2	7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8?	SELL Yes	3¢	$1	7d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 8?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9?	SELL Yes	4¢	$2	7d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June?	SELL Yes	37¢	$2	7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8?	BUY Yes	4¢	$2	7d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 8?	SELL No	32¢	$2	7d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 8?	BUY No	39¢	$2	7d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 8?	BUY Yes	26¢	$2	7d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 8?	SELL No	27¢	$2	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.71 · official $1.71 (match) · 48 history records