Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x553e…77d8 finance 6 markets active 7h ago coverage 184d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,441 (-76%) realized −$3,085 · open −$356
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$755per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,067now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 35% −$1,577
other 33% −$1,493
crypto 31% −$356
politics 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-77.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 5 -74.7% -77.1% 20% 20% -99.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.1% 20% -99.4%
10% -79.3% 20% -99.5%
15% -81.3% 0% -99.5%
20% -83.1% 0% -99.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
42.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$772 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$1,067
Realized−$3,085
Unrealized−$356
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage184d
Avg bet$755
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,422 $1,067 −$356 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 13 $1,479 −$1,479 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 05 $19 −$19 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 05 $15 +$4 +27%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026? Jan 10 $1,493 −$1,493 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 18? Dec 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $689 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $60 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $150 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,066.75 · official $1,066.75 (match) · 261 history records