Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x553d…5e3e other 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$41 (+0%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%6W / 78L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,348per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$24
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$63
politics 43% −$65
sports 4% +$149
economics 4% −$3
culture 3% −$5
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 26 +9.2% -1.2% 12% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 84 +6.6% -3.5% 7% 6% -9.5%
all 84 +6.6% -3.5% 7% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 6% -9.5%
10% -12.8% 6% -18.2%
15% -21.2% 6% -26.1%
20% -28.9% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,467) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$2 · ×13.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1,192
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses6 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage82d
Avg bet$1,348
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $660 $660 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $531 $532 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 14 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $3,661 −$6 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,742 −$4 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4,029 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,467 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $900 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $675 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 04 $383 +$1 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,442 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,015 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,734 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $585 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $61 +$28 +46%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $57 +$112 +197%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $2,003 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $1,352 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $2,481 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,388 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $1,450 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $2,727 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $1,449 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $1,448 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $1,453 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 16 $1,463 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 16 $1,423 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 16 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $2,888 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $1,002 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $1,407 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $1,202 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $1,446 −$2 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 12 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $3,603 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 29 $39 +$50 +129%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $1,301 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $660 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $703 2d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $705 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $705 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $706 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $769 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $770 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $722 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $723 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $778 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $779 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $801 9d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $802 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $662 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $663 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $911 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $912 11d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $898 11d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $900 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $673 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $675 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $664 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $664 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $710 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $711 13d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $689 17d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $690 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $418 21d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $418 21d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $383 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,191.55 · official $1,191.55 (match) · 273 history records