trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? | No | 13¢ | 28¢ | $20 | $45 | +$25 (+123%) |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 39¢ | 35¢ | $20 | $18 | −$2 (-10%) |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 25¢ | $20 | $16 | −$4 (-22%) |
| Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? | Yes | 47¢ | 60¢ | $10 | $13 | +$3 (+25%) |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Knicks | 36¢ | 36¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-21%) |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Spread: Czechia (-2.5) | Czechia | 4¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $10 | +$4 | +41% |
| Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain | Jun 11 | $10 | −$2 | -18% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score | Jun 11 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Spread: Czechia (-2.5) | Jun 11 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele | Jun 09 | $10 | +$39 | +391% |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian | Jun 01 | $36 | +$49 | +138% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $25 | +$11 | +44% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 02 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +19.1% | +7.7% | 33% | 33% | +17.5% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +37.0% | +23.9% | 50% | 50% | +50.3% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +21.7% | +10.1% | 44% | 44% | +28.2% |
| all | 9 | +21.7% | +10.1% | 44% | 44% | +28.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +10.1% | 44% | +28.2% |
| 10% | -0.4% | 44% | +15.9% |
| 15% | -10.0% | 44% | +4.7% |
| 20% | -18.8% | 22% | -5.5% |