Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:13:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

55
0x5539…5cbe
other · 438 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1,679 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,695 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$178
Realized+$1,695
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses146 / 290
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)436 / 438
Avg bet$34
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 2 History 436 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$340
7 days+$64
14 days−$1,313
30 days−$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$9 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $53 +$35 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $127 +$395 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $61 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $38 −$36 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $86 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $71 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $91 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $86 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $82 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $78 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $73 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $68 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $64 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $55 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $58 +$17 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $72 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $68 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $59 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $45 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $53 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $89 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $61 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $39 −$27 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$16 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$19 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$59 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$15 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $29 −$8 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $18 −$8 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $22 +$16 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% +$1,935
crypto 42% +$72
sports 5% −$162
finance 1% −$69
world 0% −$41
culture 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $154 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $286 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $61 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $117 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $38 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $37 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $86 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $80 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $86 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $71 23h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $91 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -4.1% -13.2% 48% 27% -7.4%
≤30d 343 -26.3% -33.3% 32% 22% -13.1%
≤90d 385 -17.8% -25.6% 34% 24% -7.8%
all 436 -6.1% -15.1% 33% 25% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 25% +1.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 22% -8.3%
15% -30.6% 19% -17.1%
20% -37.4% 16% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.47 · official $178.47 (match) · 3500 history records