Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

55 0x5539…0241 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip

Net edge-65%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate40%8W / 12L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$848per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$2,073now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$8

7 days−$1

14 days−$13

30 days−$7

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-63.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-49.9%	-54.7%	50%	0%	-9.5%
≤30d	19	-57.8%	-61.8%	42%	0%	-9.6%
≤90d	20	-59.9%	-63.7%	40%	0%	-9.6%
all	20	-59.9%	-63.7%	40%	0%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-63.7%	0%	-9.6%
10%	-67.2%	0%	-18.2%
15%	-70.4%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-73.3%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -60% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,065) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -40% → late -80% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.76 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage

Net worth$2,073

Realized−$6

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses8 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage32d

Avg bet$848

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$2,070	$2,068	−$2 (-0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	95¢	96¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16?	Jun 17	$2,066	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16?	Jun 16	$2,062	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14?	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11?	Jun 12	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 9?	Jun 10	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 9?	Jun 10	$0	$0	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7?	Jun 07	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5?	Jun 05	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1?	Jun 02	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 29?	May 29	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 26?	May 27	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	May 25	$2,075	+$6	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24?	May 24	$2,072	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 23?	May 24	$2,069	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23?	May 23	$2,065	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22?	May 23	$2,061	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 22?	May 22	$2,055	+$6	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 21?	May 21	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on May 18?	May 19	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 16?	May 16	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,070	1h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$2,066	7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$2,062	25h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	5d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 9?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	7d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 9?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	7d
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 9?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	7d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7?	BUY No	0¢	$4	10d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	15d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	95¢	$5	17d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 29?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 26?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	BUY No	100¢	$2,075	23d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24?	BUY No	100¢	$2,072	23d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 23?	BUY No	100¢	$2,069	24d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,065	25d
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22?	BUY No	100¢	$2,061	25d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 22?	BUY No	100¢	$2,055	25d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 21?	BUY No	0¢	$4	27d
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on May 18?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	29d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	32d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,073.20 · official $2,073.20 (match) · 32 history records