Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:02:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5533…8220 crypto 163 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,729 (+12%) realized +$5,565 · open +$164
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%82W / 116L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day119.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$1,251
culture 5% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -77.9% -80.0% 13% 12% -60.1%
≤30d 198 -15.7% -23.7% 41% 36% -9.3%
≤90d 198 -15.7% -23.7% 41% 36% -9.3%
all 198 -15.7% -23.7% 41% 36% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 36% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 32% -18.0%
15% -37.7% 30% -25.9%
20% -43.8% 25% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$153 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$2,205
Realized+$5,565
Unrealized+$164
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses82 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)198 / 163
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$292
Trades / day119.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 56¢ 61¢ $2,041 $2,204 +$164 (+8%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+123%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $253 −$253 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $44 −$97 -221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $139 −$401 -289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $482 −$482 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $113 −$68 -60%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $403 +$51 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $172 +$122 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $47 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $115 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $159 +$117 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $44 +$35 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $401 +$229 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $210 −$181 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$89 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 1h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $108 1h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 1h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 1h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $209 1h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $39 1h
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $22 1h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $33 2h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $381 2h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $324 2h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $45 2h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 23h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $400 23h
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 23h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 4d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $28 4d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $82 4d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 4d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $56 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $70 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,204.88 · official $2,204.88 (match) · 3500 history records