Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x552b…34e2 crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$154 (-10%) realized −$44 · open −$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$66
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$218
sports 30% +$14
other 22% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -24.1% -31.3% 55% 27% -17.0%
≤30d 11 -24.1% -31.3% 55% 27% -17.0%
≤90d 34 -24.9% -32.0% 47% 35% -21.0%
all 34 -24.9% -32.0% 47% 35% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 35% -21.0%
10% -38.5% 21% -28.5%
15% -44.5% 18% -35.4%
20% -49.9% 15% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$20 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage63d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 2¢ $124 $14 −$110 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $90 +$4 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 +$18 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $90 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $187 +$4 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $180 +$7 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 15 $62 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 15 $100 −$86 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 15 $78 +$85 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 15 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 15 $17 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 15 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 15 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 15 $7 +$5 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $127 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $86 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $82 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $124 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $105 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $105 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $90 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 40h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $191 42h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $187 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $180 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $6 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $50 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.09 · official $14.09 (match) · 84 history records