Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:54:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
55 0x5529…e5b9 politics 657 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$12,526 (+19%) realized +$11,362 · open +$1,164
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +172% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +109% what you keep after slip
Net edge+109%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate78%219W / 63L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day80.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$47,118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
politics 81% +$21,421
other 14% +$458
weather 2% +$3
world 2% +$68
crypto 0% +$24
sports 0% −$27
finance 0% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+146.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +84.2% +66.7% 74% 43% +13.9%
≤30d 256 +166.9% +141.5% 78% 41% +21.4%
≤90d 282 +172.0% +146.1% 78% 40% +21.1%
all 282 +172.0% +146.1% 78% 40% +21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +146.1% 40% +21.1%
10% ← realistic here +122.6% 35% +9.5%
15% +101.1% 31% -1.1%
20% +81.4% 27% -10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +172% · $-wt +68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +119% → late +225% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$9 · ×10.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×37.09 per $1 lost it wins $37.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$47,118
Realized+$11,362
Unrealized+$1,164
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses219 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions484
Markets (closed)282 / 657
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$99
Trades / day80.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 484 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party win the CA-29 House seat? No 94¢ 94¢ $3,020 $3,036 +$16 (+1%)
Will Hope Scheppelman be the Republican nominee for CO-03? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,644 $1,643 −$1 (-0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,648 $1,643 −$5 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-30 House seat? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $1,450 $1,458 +$8 (+1%)
Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET? No 90¢ 92¢ $1,039 $1,063 +$24 (+2%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $990 $1,008 +$18 (+2%)
Will Timothy Wilcox win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election? No 84¢ 100¢ $701 $826 +$125 (+18%)
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? Yes 76¢ 92¢ $670 $813 +$143 (+21%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 77¢ 89¢ $549 $637 +$88 (+16%)
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? No 81¢ 86¢ $584 $614 +$29 (+5%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders announce a presidential run before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $559 $593 +$35 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $559 $578 +$20 (+4%)
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $576 $575 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Republican Party win the MA-07 House seat? No 96¢ 96¢ $570 $567 −$2 (-0%)
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $506 $500 −$6 (-1%)
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? No 71¢ 94¢ $374 $496 +$122 (+33%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 84¢ 80¢ $417 $399 −$18 (-4%)
Will Esther Charlestin win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? No 94¢ 98¢ $382 $399 +$17 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party win the CA-34 House seat? No 96¢ 96¢ $386 $383 −$3 (-1%)
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 51¢ 65¢ $290 $372 +$82 (+28%)
Will Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $368 $359 −$9 (-2%)
Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? No 90¢ 97¢ $330 $358 +$28 (+8%)
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? No 83¢ 86¢ $344 $358 +$14 (+4%)
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $342 $344 +$3 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $297 $294 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pitbull perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 24 $0 $0 -81%
Will Ozuna perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026? Jun 24 $37 +$1 +4%
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary Jun 24 $110 +$32 +29%
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -28%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-51 House seat? Jun 24 $57 +$105 +184%
Will the Democratic Party win the MA-02 House seat? Jun 24 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-02 House seat? Jun 24 $94 +$1 +1%
Will J Balvin perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 24 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $210 −$47 -22%
Will Liban Mohamed be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bad Bunny perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 24 $195 +$2 +1%
Will Ariana Grande perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s Jun 24 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Anuel AA perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 24 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? Jun 24 $0 +$28 +5824%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $863 +$207 +24%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 24 $76 +$13 +18%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $130 −$1 -0%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 24 $26 −$7 -26%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $106 +$20 +19%
Will Dan Goldman be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Jun 24 $8 −$2 -27%
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $10 +$37 +383%
Will Effie Phillips-Staley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $367 +$212 +58%
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $44 −$6 -14%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $232 +$64 +28%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $44 +$87 +199%
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $9 +$105 +1199%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $266 +$176 +66%
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Jun 24 $158 +$83 +52%
Will Dalourny Nemorin be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Jun 24 $162 +$184 +114%
Will Michael Blake be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Jun 24 $146 +$5 +4%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $90 +$91 +100%
Will Antonio Delgado win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Pr Jun 24 $819 +$56 +7%
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Jun 24 $115 +$23 +20%
Will Quincy Bareebe be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Matt Fulmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $218 +$7 +3%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 24 $467 −$19 -4%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 24 $265 +$228 +86%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $105 +$197 +188%
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Rosalía perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 23 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat? Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 23 $160 −$53 -33%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 22 $39 +$5 +14%
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republic Jun 21 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Mark Lynch win the first round of the South Carolina Republican S Jun 21 $171 $0 +0%
Will another outcome occur in the NY-13 Democratic Primary? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 20 $9 −$3 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pitbull perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Ozuna perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Lady Gaga perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY No 92¢ $5 2m
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election? BUY Yes 93¢ $47 5m
Will the Republican Party win the GA-08 House seat? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 13m
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 15m
Will Post Malone perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime sho BUY No 95¢ $8 15m
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 16m
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary e BUY Yes 18¢ $2 17m
Will Hank Kroll advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election SELL No 97¢ $13 17m
Will Ozuna perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY No 29¢ $18 33m
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primar BUY Yes 77¢ $7 37m
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary SELL Yes 72¢ $9 1h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-28 House seat? BUY No 89¢ $44 1h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-28 House seat? BUY No 89¢ $18 1h
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-02 House seat? BUY No 94¢ $188 1h
Will Cardi B perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 96¢ $14 1h
Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? BUY No 94¢ $17 1h
Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 1h
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $4 1h
Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? BUY No 97¢ $1 2h
Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? BUY No 97¢ $48 2h
Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? BUY No 97¢ $48 2h
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? BUY Yes 79¢ $16 2h
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 2h
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 2h
Will Hank Kroll advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election SELL No 97¢ $6 2h
Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? BUY Yes 80¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,117.71 · official $47,125.46 (match) · 3500 history records