Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5527…27e0 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$216 (-42%) realized −$201 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$24
crypto 29% −$150
sports 4% +$7
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -24.9% -32.0% 38% 38% -47.4%
≤30d 8 -24.9% -32.0% 38% 38% -47.4%
≤90d 8 -24.9% -32.0% 38% 38% -47.4%
all 8 -24.9% -32.0% 38% 38% -47.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 38% -47.4%
10% -38.5% 38% -52.5%
15% -44.5% 38% -57.1%
20% -49.9% 38% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$52 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$201
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 39¢ 36¢ $111 $102 −$9 (-8%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 19¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Yes 36¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Yes 42¢ 19¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$56 +109%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $40 +$47 +119%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Memphis Depay: 1+ goals Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 39¢ $114 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $10 6h
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 6h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $10 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 6h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $40 31h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 31h
Memphis Depay: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $17 4d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 4d
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $36 4d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $51 4d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $152 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.38 · official $131.25 (match) · 16 history records