Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5526…2336 world 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-1%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate39%32W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$43
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$60
other 33% +$22
politics 2% −$2
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 29 -3.7% -12.9% 24% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 37 -2.7% -12.0% 32% 0% -10.0%
all 83 -3.0% -12.3% 39% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 1% -9.9%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses32 / 51
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 87
History coverage490d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 55¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $214 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $101 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $102 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $104 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $455 −$41 -9%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $141 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $11 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $155 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $144 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $155 +$2 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $396 −$2 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $84 −$2 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $144 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $697 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $8 $0 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $317 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $143 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $207 +$6 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $144 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $195 +$12 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $139 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $146 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $322 −$22 -7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $171 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $144 −$13 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $177 +$10 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $69 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $180 +$14 +8%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $159 −$8 -5%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $1,190 +$11 +1%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 21 $9 $0 +4%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Dec 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 26 $20 $0 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Jun 04 $4 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $5 $0 +8%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Federico Dimarco be named the Champions League Final man of the m May 31 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $102 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $19 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $99 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $13 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $112 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $101 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $61 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $102 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $102 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $102 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $102 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $87 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $104 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $103 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $103 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $104 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $104 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $12 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $88 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $141 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $56 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $85 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $141 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $29 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.39 · official $102.12 · 353 history records