Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5526…9318 politics 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,099 (-2%) realized −$2,099 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate30%40W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,000per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days+$37
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$63
other 29% +$558
sports 22% −$2,604
culture 4% −$5
economics 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 34 +3.5% -6.3% 18% 9% -9.3%
≤90d 65 -10.5% -19.0% 11% 5% -13.5%
all 135 +7.4% -2.8% 30% 15% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 15% -10.9%
10% -12.1% 14% -19.5%
15% -20.6% 13% -27.2%
20% -28.4% 10% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,436) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +25% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$35 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized−$2,099
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses40 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,000
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $358 $358 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2,866 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $966 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,448 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,200 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $1,157 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3,216 −$3 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $62 +$60 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $84 +$69 +83%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $950 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,124 −$5 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $149 $0 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,082 +$2 +0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $210 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $218 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $236 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $1,383 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $876 −$1 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $52 +$23 +44%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $352 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 21 $335 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,118 −$2 -0%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 29 $1,237 −$1,237 -100%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 26 $1,168 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,202 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2,312 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $1,150 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,145 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $3,773 −$3 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,185 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $2,933 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $3,185 −$3 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $3,005 −$3 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $2,250 −$2 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $724 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $345 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $345 2h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $591 3h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $592 6h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,034 47h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,036 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,073 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,075 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $964 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $966 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $358 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,446 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,448 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,244 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,246 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,252 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,253 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,200 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,048 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,050 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,156 10d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,157 10d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,301 11d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,303 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,036 12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,037 12d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $62 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 54¢ $84 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $949 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.58 · official $357.58 (match) · 388 history records