Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5522…c807 sports 667 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,593 (-3%) realized −$4,739 · open +$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate75%488W / 162L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$323est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,924
7 days−$6,944
14 days−$6,951
30 days−$4,859
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$1,988
other 31% −$2,998
tech 2% +$294
finance 0% −$7
world 0% −$7
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 -4.9% -13.9% 79% 35% -20.7%
≤30d 375 -6.3% -15.2% 77% 31% -13.7%
≤90d 650 -1.8% -11.2% 75% 35% -12.0%
all 650 -1.8% -11.2% 75% 35% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 35% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 18% -20.4%
15% -27.4% 11% -28.1%
20% -34.5% 7% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$114 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$2,369
Realized−$4,739
Unrealized+$146
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses488 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$323
Open positions17
Markets (closed)650 / 667
History coverage74d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 90¢ 97¢ $900 $966 +$66 (+7%)
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Austria 97¢ 100¢ $784 $803 +$18 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 81¢ 92¢ $203 $230 +$27 (+13%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 76¢ 92¢ $152 $184 +$33 (+21%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $62 $60 −$2 (-3%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 87¢ 82¢ $44 $41 −$2 (-6%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 88¢ 96¢ $18 $19 +$2 (+10%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+22%)
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30? No 92¢ 79¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 38¢ 70¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+86%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$10 +24%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $970 +$40 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $962 +$38 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $9 +$1 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $28 +$2 +8%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $18 +$2 +12%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$1 -8%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 17 $95 +$5 +5%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,456 +$44 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $65 +$5 +7%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $280 +$20 +7%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $28 +$3 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $382 +$18 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$5 +45%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $9 −$5 -59%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $99 +$4 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $185 +$14 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $191 +$8 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $89 −$27 -30%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 +$4 +67%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,183 +$147 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $951 +$48 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -86%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $304 +$36 +12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $343 +$77 +22%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $460 +$40 +9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 +$2 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 +$2 +30%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $192 +$13 +7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +133%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $186 +$14 +7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $366 +$44 +12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $15 −$14 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $451 53m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 54m
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Austria 97¢ $298 54m
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Austria 97¢ $487 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $18 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $451 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 89¢ $18 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $9 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $9 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $96 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $71 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $228 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $253 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $25 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $49 2h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $480 2h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $481 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 92¢ $18 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $196 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 93¢ $9 3h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 68¢ $13 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $9 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $192 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $15 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $97 3h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $10 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 95¢ $20 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,368.74 · official $2,369.54 (match) · 2363 history records