Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

55 0x5520…e618 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$10 (+21%) realized +$10 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown43%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-25.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-17.6%	-25.4%	50%	50%	+24.7%
≤30d	2	-17.6%	-25.4%	50%	50%	+24.7%
≤90d	2	-17.6%	-25.4%	50%	50%	+24.7%
all	2	-17.6%	-25.4%	50%	50%	+24.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.4%	50%	+24.7%
10%	-32.6%	50%	+12.8%
15%	-39.1%	50%	+1.9%
20%	-45.1%	50%	-8.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +38% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt +38% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$4 · ×3.31 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.31 per $1 lost it wins $3.31

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$23

Realized+$10

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown43%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$23	$23	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the	Jun 22	$20	+$13	+65%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$4	−$4	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$23	1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the	SELL Yes	97¢	$34	1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5	BUY Over	89¢	$4	21h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the	BUY Yes	57¢	$20	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.83 · official $22.83 (match) · 4 history records