Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:05:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x551f…c21c other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$110 (-0%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,701per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$29
14 days−$58
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$62
politics 42% −$102
sports 4% +$16
economics 3% −$7
culture 1% −$4
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 53 +1.4% -8.3% 9% 8% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -2.7% -12.0% 11% 8% -9.6%
all 104 -2.7% -11.9% 11% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 8% -9.6%
10% -20.4% 7% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 7% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,314) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$6 · ×6.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage95d
Avg bet$1,701
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $187 $188 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $218 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $507 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $3,136 −$3 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $1,602 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 15 $2,925 −$5 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $4,430 −$7 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $1,451 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $4,867 −$6 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $1,638 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,727 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,850 −$4 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $2,000 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,110 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $4,604 −$7 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $4,391 −$6 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,653 −$3 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $4,883 −$5 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $3,060 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,822 −$5 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,678 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,481 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $82 +$136 +165%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,713 −$6 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,462 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $82 +$60 +73%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,252 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,321 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $577 +$1 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $4,342 −$5 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,020 −$3 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $1,586 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,208 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $3,830 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,190 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $4,616 −$5 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,666 −$4 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $87 +$78 +90%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,950 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $2,314 −$4 -0%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $83 −$83 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $217 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $218 2h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $506 24h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $507 27h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $475 27h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $475 28h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $693 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $695 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $524 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $525 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,517 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,519 4d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,599 4d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,602 4d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $1,554 5d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1,557 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,244 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,246 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,449 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,451 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,617 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,620 6d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,636 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,638 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,725 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,727 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,609 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,612 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,361 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,363 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.67 · official $187.67 (match) · 338 history records